VERY UGLY AMERICANS

People of the world and their governments, increasingly fed up with all things American, will be putting out the "unwelcome" sign for President Bush, Made-in-USA consumer products, and U.S citizens.

Unlike the "Ugly American" trend we had previously forecast, ("2001 will not be our year, trend seer says" - USA Today 12/14/ 2000), this new wave of " Yankee go home" mania has metastasized into a more virulent form.

In December 2000, when we first detected the trend, anti-Americanism was generalized - directed mainly at United States unilateral policies concerning issues such as human rights, the environment, and the Florida debacle which challenged the legitimacy of the newly appointed president.

But now the anti-American finger pointing is targeted. Back then the American people were not directly blamed for government policy. But now they are seen as willing accomplices in making the world a more dangerous place….

UNDIVIDED USA

In 2005, as events unfold and crisis occurs, for all those willing to look, they will see that despite the media's conclusions and the political pundit's illusions, America is not a divided red and blue color-coded nation.

Yet, even before all the presidential votes were counted, it was collectively agreed, and accepted by the public, that there were two classes of Americans - people who fly coast to coast and the folks who drive under them.

There is no denying that America is politically polarized, broken into two opposing, and probably unalterably hostile camps. On one side, the tattered "Anybody But Bush" contingent suffers a collective nervous breakdown, while triumphant "Bushies" celebrate their decisive victory.

But to describe this, as all are now doing, as a stark black-and-white "Red" and "Blue" geographical phenomenon is disingenuous, seriously misleading and ultimately exploitative.

While the current divisions are serious, unlike the Civil War with its clear line separating northern Blue and southern Gray, today's reds and blues are not so much mortal regional enemies as they are victims of an antiquated Electoral College….

DOING THE IRAQ DRAG

Washington's promise and the Pentagon's prophesy that this year's Iraqi elections will help establish democracy and facilitate U.S. troop reductions, are as inaccurate as claims made last year by Vice President Dick Cheney that the Iraq War is "behind us," and Maj. General Raymond Odierno's prediction, that "We have six to twelve months left of this insurgency."

Rather than unite the country, the upcoming Iraqi elections will create deeper political/tribal conflict, harden religious divisions and push Iraq into more chaos and a bloody civil war. There will be no democracy, no independent government nor will there be an Iraqi armed force capable of accepting the transfer of United States military power.

Forced into waging war on their own, thousands more Americans will die, tens of thousands more will be wounded, hundreds of thousand of Iraqi's will be killed and wounded, and hundreds of billions more dollars will be spent before the United States and its handful of coalition forces are eventually forced to withdraw….

THE WHOLE HEALTH DIET

Happy New-Year resolutions! Fad diets will come and go but the Whole Health Diet will become the next big American trend. With Dr. Atkins passing on and the South Beach diet cooling off (Americans following low-carb diets dropped from a January high of 9 percent to 4.6 percent in September) we forecast that next diet craze will also provide recipes for staying healthy in mind, body and spirit.

While the United States holds the heavy weight title for the most obese adults and children in the world (obesity is up 97% since 1990), and everything diet oriented will continue to be big business, there are much larger health issues plaguing the sickly nation. When it comes to longevity, the U.S., the nation that lays claim to being #1, ranks 24th and its health care system ranks a lowly 37th among "advanced" nations, according to the World Health Organization….

FIVE "O" ECONOMY FOR '05

By year's end, the majority of American households will see their standard of living steadily decline, their cost of living rapidly increase, their wages continue to drop or stagnate, pensions will suffer, less benefits will be provided, and they'll be working longer and harder just to stay even.

As these consumers redirect their dwindling income to pay for high cost necessities (housing, insurance, heath care, energy, etc), the disposable and durable goods retail sectors will suffer earning losses, unemployment will rise and competition will increase.

Despite the political rhetoric dished out during Campaign 2004 about protecting jobs from being outsourced and creating new and better ones at home, in the 21st century market place, it's not presidents or polices that dictate America's economic future, it the global forces of the Five "O" Economy:

· Open Markets · On-Line Commerce · Overcapacity · Overproduction · Overpopulation

The "Five-"O" formula, developed by Institute director Gerald Celente, illustrates the new Global Age interplay that created the 21st century economic marketplace….

REAL ESTATE FIZZ

The red-hot real estate market, after four straight years of gains averaging nearly seven percent, will lose some sizzle and could turn cold in 2005. Similar to the 1929 stock market crash story of Joseph Kennedy knowing it was time to sell when the shoeshine boy gave him stock tips, now legions of job-seeking unemployed have become real estate agents and mortgage brokers, while novice speculators flip properties … all hoping to turn a quick buck.

During Campaign 2004, it was put forth, and mostly left unchallenged, that the lowering of taxes among upper income Americans provided the trickle down monetary juice needed to grow the economy and push the nation out of recession. However, the real recession anecdote was the 46-year low interest rates that set the real estate market on fire and sparked the easy money re-financing boom that led homeowners to tap the equity in their homes, lower monthly payments and go on a spending spree. Pure and simple it was an interest rate recovery brought on by 13 rate cuts….

AFFORDABLE SOPHISTICATION

As the economy slows and disposable income levels decline, for those American's who acquired a taste for the finer things in life during the Roaring 90's and cheap money 2000's, a step down in quality will be a hard fall to take.

No longer able to freely splurge on shopping sprees and unable to afford the top of the line disposable and durable goods products, while not broke, but cautious, an estimated 35 percent of the population will still buy into quality when possible….

THE GOLDEN BULL

2005 has all the makings for a big year in gold. But it will be a long roller coaster ride to the top as the precious metal wildly fluctuates before it reaches its peak over the next three to four years.

Currently, the strength or weakness of the dollar is determining gold's direction in this early stage of its bull-run. But as the year moves forward, the simple equation that a weak dollar equals strong gold prices and a strong dollar equals weak gold prices will become more complex.

Regardless of the time and place, the routine is always the same. Central banks will dump gold reserves, adjust interest rates to stabilize currency fluctuations, and/or intervene in the foreign exchange markets to avoid "…excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates that are undesirable for economic growth."….

"NEW AGE" HITS OLD AGE

After a nearly two decade run, the New Age trend, embraced both by baby boomers seeking personal growth and by marketers looking for profits, has stalled and is in decline.

Loosely defined as a social movement - a collective process whose value system is based on the axiom that human beings have a meaning, purpose and responsibility in life and to the universe, New Age reached its peak in 1994 when it went mainstream (See, "New Age Going Pop," 1994 Summer Issue, page 3).

While relatively new to Western culture, there was nothing new about New Age. It's simply a new read on an old value system, that, to live longer, healthier, happier lives, requires a continuing stream of mind, body and spiritual practices to improve the wholeness and purpose of the being….

DEADMERICA

America has lost its soul. The political scene is numbly boring, the people's resistance is broken down, the music has long stopped rocking, and the party scene has lost its hip.

Trapped in a 24-7 life style of all work and hardly any play, America has grown too tight to party and is too tired to parent. For this post 9/11 society of high anxiety and terror fear, there is little time for fun and few signs of contentment among the world's most medicated people.

Life Style: Ranking 13th on The Economist's scale of the best place to live, Americans work almost nine full work weeks longer than their European counterparts, have a fraction of the vacation time, few of the health and education benefits, and less family/community satisfaction than do citizens of the more advanced nations….